Fw: Polling analysis: public support for the war in Iraq continues to drop
who is called the Devil and Satan,
who deceived the whole world,
was thrown down..
Council for a Livable World
September 29 , 2005
PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE WAR IN IRAQ CONTINUES TO DROP
For many months, American support for the war in Iraq has been declining in the face of continued violence there and American military deaths climbing above 1,900; more recently, the public has linked the Administrations failures at hurricane relief to the need to bring home some or all U.S. troops from Iraq.
An analysis of recent public opinion polls strongly indicates how American public opinion is changing.
The public strongly disapproves of the Presidents handling of the war. A September 17 New York Times poll found that approval for George W. Bushs handling of the war in Iraq has dramatically declined from a high of 79% in April 2003 to 36% in mid-September. This decline has helped drive the Presidents overall approval level to near-record lows. The same poll indicates that 63% of Americans do not have confidence in Bushs ability to make the right decisions about the war and 72% do not believe that the President has a clear plan for getting American troops out of Iraq.
Americans support for going to war has also declined. The New York Times poll also finds that Americans who believe that invading Iraq was the right decision has shrunk from 64% in December 2003 to a low of 44% today. A September 20 USA Today poll confirmed that "a record-high 59% say it was a mistake to invade."
Many people have linked the Administrations weak response to Hurricane Katrina with the war in Iraq. The September 20 USA Today article reported that its survey "shows signs of friction between the two most pressing concerns on Bush's agenda: the Iraq war and Katrina recovery." The Associated Press Tom Raum added in a September 22 article: "Hurricane Katrina and its wrenching aftermath have turned public attention and already-dwindling support away from President Bush's Iraq policy. And that was before Hurricane Rita took aim at Texas." According to Raum, even war supporter Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) concedes that hurricane concerns are taking a toll on war support. McCain said: "Look, everything's changed. We didn't anticipate a $200 billion expenditure of taxpayers' dollars a month ago, and so everything's changed."
Combined, these issues are damaging one of the Presidents greatest perceived strengths: his steadfastness. According to a September 21 analysis of focus groups by Democracy Corps : "Voters largely believe Bush made a series of mistakes in deciding to take action in Iraq, but the same steadfastness which they used to praise in Bush, they now see making him too stubborn to acknowledge those mistakes." The analysis continued: "Bush is viewed to be in over his head in Iraq, committed to an ideal victory that does not match the reality of the situation on the ground and unable to shift his thinking or make concessions that will be needed to ensure security in Iraq while reducing U.S. troop levels and funding."
A majority believe hurricane relief is a higher budget priority. A September 22 AP article cites an AP-Ipsos poll indicating that two-thirds of Americans say Bush is spending too much in Iraq. A September 15 Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll shows that cutting spending on Iraq is Americans' top choice for financing Katrina recovery. According to the same poll, 60% say rebuilding the Gulf Coast should be a higher national priority than establishing democracy in Iraq. Similarly, a September 10 Time Magazine poll indicates that 61% of Americans think the U.S. should cut Iraq spending to fund rebuilding areas devastated by Hurricane Katrina. The September 17 New York Times poll indicates that 83% of Americans are very or somewhat concerned that the Iraq war is costing money and resources needed in the U.S.
To the public, the painfully lethargic hurricane response demonstrates that America is not any safer or more prepared for major disasters than it was before September 11. Until now, many Americans refused to accept the criticism that the Administrations focus on Iraq detracted from homeland security. Democracy Corps finds that accusations of homeland security weakness were not believed "because they simply would not believe that this president, who staked his entire presidency on his response to 9/11, would allow such wholesale security failures on his watch." That has changed. Democracy Corps reports: "Now, after Katrina, voters are asking serious questions about security here at home, and they increasingly see the massive deployment in Iraq, particularly of National Guard troops whose primary responsibility is homeland security and response to domestic disasters such as hurricanes, as a security risk here at home."
A public skeptical about the war had not been prepared to support bringing U.S. troops home; that sentiment is now changing. While the support for withdrawal depends in part on how the question is phrased, the September 20 USA Today poll finds that "nearly two-thirds of those polled, 63%, say some or all of the U.S. troops in Iraq should be withdrawn." The New York Times discerns that 42% believe that U.S. troops should stay as long as it takes to ensure a stable democracy while 52% say leave as soon as possible. According to the September 10 Time poll, 58% of respondents support the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq to help with the recovery efforts. With this mood shift in mind, the Democracy Corps analysis suggests the following policy theme for war critics: "Reduce funding and troop levels in Iraq so we can focus more resources on defending and rebuilding our own country."
The conclusion: the public mood on Iraq has shifted. The politicians have not yet caught up.
To link to the polls and articles:
New York Times poll - September 17
Time Magazine poll - September 10
Democracy Corps focus group analysis - September 21
AP article - September 22
USA Today article - September 20
posted by carol wolman @ 7:54 AM
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