Fw: Apocalypse Now: Sleepwalking to End of the Earth- more info

----- Original Message -----
From: "Rich"
To: "carol wolman"
Sent: Friday, February 25, 2005 4:12 PM
Subject: Re: Apocalypse Now: Sleepwalking to End of the Earth

> And the problem is that thy are still not looking at all of the positive
> feedback systems in effect. If you look at a good chart of the temperature
> for the last 50 years you can see that it is grwoing exponentially.
>
> The carbon sinks are decreasing more rapidly than expected, the fossil
fuel
> is still increasing, the time constant of the co2 in the atmosphere is
> around 60 years. This means taht if we froze fossil fules instantly at the
> amount we are now consuming it would be over 60 years before the CO2 in
the
> atmosphere stopped rising.
>
> Mean while in Califonia we are haveing record rainfalls which are almost
> certainly at least partially a result of global warming, In 2003 some
30000
> people died of an extreme heat wave almost certianly paartially a result
of
> global warming..
>
> The IPCC has consitantly been surprised by things being more rapid than
they
> predicted. That is no real reflection on them. Scientists are dedicated to
> being certain of what they say so then tend to be very conservative in
their
> predictions. As contrasted wtith the politcal leaders in the US who claim
> all sorts of wild things.
>
> Richard
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "carol wolman"
> To:
> Sent: Thursday, February 24, 2005 10:55 AM
> Subject: Fw: Apocalypse Now: Sleepwalking to End of the Earth
>
>
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Flyby News"
> > To:
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 09, 2005 3:39 AM
> > Subject: Apocalypse Now: Sleepwalking to End of the Earth
> >
> >
> >>
> >> Flyby News
> >> Editor - Jonathan Mark
> >> 08 February 2005 - Part 1
> >> Apocalypse Now: Sleepwalking to End of the Earth
> >>
> >> "Then the biggest-ever study of climate change . . .
> >> reported that it could prove to be twice as
> >> catastrophic as the IPCC's worst predictions.
> >> And an international task force - also reporting
> >> to Tony Blair, and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers -
> >> concluded that we could reach "the point of no return" in a decade."
> >>
> >> - Geoffrey Lean
> >> Apocalypse Now:
> >> How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth"
> >>
> >>
*************************************************************************
> >> This issue is posted in best format for Reading, Linking, and Printing,
> >> from recent issues = = = > http://www.FlybyNews.com
> >>
*************************************************************************
> >>
> >> Editor's Notes:
> >>
> >> "How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth" is blatant
reality!
> >> Please consider to read this, and links at the end for more on Global
> > Warming,
> >> and on appropriate technology to significantly reduce CO2 pollution
> > emissions.
> >> Let's do something for seven generations, for those here now and for
the
> >> future. The mentioning in this following article that nuclear power
> >> should
> > be
> >> considered to lessen the threat of global warming is ludicrous. This
> >> would
> >> only make matters worse, by the emissions released by truckloads of
> > shipments
> >> to build and care for the material, never mind the threat of nuclear
harm
> > by
> >> sabotage, terrorism, and earth-climate changes.
> >>
>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
> > ----
> >>
> >> 1) How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth
> >>
> >> Apocalypse Now: How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth
> >> Published on Sunday, February 6, 2005 by the lndependent/UK
> >>
> >> Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers,
> > oceans
> >> turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that
> > dangerous
> >> climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow. You
> > don't
> >> believe it? Then, says Geoffrey Lean, read this...
> >>
> >> by Geoffrey Lean
> >>
> >> Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable
> > world,
> >> are likely to play special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. As
> > they
> >> puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into
disaster -
> >> destroying the climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish
> > over
> >> the past 11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the
time
> > when
> >> the last alarms sounded.
> >>
> >> Last week, 200 of the world's leading climate scientists - meeting at
> >> Tony
> >> Blair's request at the Met Office's new headquarters at Exeter - issued
> > the
> >> most urgent warning to date that dangerous climate change is taking
> >> place,
> > and
> >> that time is running out.
> >>
> >> Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty that tries to
> > control
> >> global warming, comes into force after a seven-year delay. But it is
> >> clear
> >> that the protocol does not go nearly far enough.
> >>
> >> The alarms have been going off since the beginning of one of the
warmest
> >> Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri - chairman of the
> > official
> >> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - told a UN conference
> >> in
> >> Mauritius that the pollution which causes global warming has reached
> >> "dangerous" levels.
> >>
> >> Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based at Oxford
> >> University,
> >> reported that it could prove to be twice as catastrophic as the IPCC's
> > worst
> >> predictions. And an international task force - also reporting to Tony
> > Blair,
> >> and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers - concluded that we
could
> >> reach "the point of no return" in a decade.
> >>
> >> Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time out - just
before
> > his
> >> company reported record profits mainly achieved by selling oil, one of
> >> the
> >> main causes of the problem - to warn that unless governments take
urgent
> >> action there "will be a disaster".
> >>
> >> But it was last week at the Met Office's futuristic glass headquarters,
> >> incongruously set in a dreary industrial estate on the outskirts of
> > Exeter,
> >> that it all came together. The conference had been called by the Prime
> >> Minister to advise him on how to "avoid dangerous climate change". He
> > needed
> >> help in persuading the world to prioritize the issue this year during
> >> Britain's presidencies of the EU and the G8 group of economic powers.
> >>
> >> The conference opened with the Secretary of State for the Environment,
> >> Margaret Beckett, warning that "a significant impact" from global
warming
> > "is
> >> already inevitable". It continued with presentations from top
scientists
> > and
> >> economists from every continent. These showed that some dangerous
climate
> >> change was already taking place and that catastrophic events once
thought
> >> highly improbable were now seen as likely (see panel). Avoiding the
worst
> > was
> >> technically simple and economically cheap, they said, provided that
> >> governments could be persuaded to take immediate action.
> >>
> >> About halfway through I realized that I had been here before. In the
> > summer of
> >> 1986 the world's leading nuclear experts gathered in Vienna for an
> >> inquest
> >> into the accident at Chernobyl. The head of the Russian delegation
showed
> > a
> >> film shot from a helicopter, and we suddenly found ourselves gazing
down
> > on
> >> the red-hot exposed reactor core.
> >>
> >> It was all, of course, much less dramatic at Exeter. But as paper
> >> followed
> >> learned paper, once again a group of world authorities were staring at
a
> >> crisis they had devoted their lives to trying to avoid.
> >>
> >> I am willing to bet there were few in the room who did not sense their
> >> children or grandchildren standing invisibly at their shoulders. The
> >> conference formally concluded that climate change was "already
occurring"
> > and
> >> that "in many cases the risks are more serious than previously
thought".
> > But
> >> the cautious scientific language scarcely does justice to the sense of
> >> the
> >> meeting.
> >>
> >> We learned that glaciers are shrinking around the world. Arctic sea ice
> > has
> >> lost almost half its thickness in recent decades. Natural disasters are
> >> increasing rapidly around the world. Those caused by the weather - such
> >> as
> >> droughts, storms, and floods - are rising three times faster than
those -
> > such
> >> as earthquakes - that are not.
> >>
> >> We learned that bird populations in the North Sea collapsed last year,
> > after
> >> the sand eels on which they feed left its warmer waters - and how the
> > number
> >> of scientific papers recording changes in ecosystems due to global
> >> warming
> > has
> >> escalated from 14 to more than a thousand in five years.
> >>
> >> Worse, leading scientists warned of catastrophic changes that once they
> > had
> >> dismissed as "improbable". The meeting was particularly alarmed by
> > powerful
> >> evidence, first reported in The Independent on Sunday last July, that
the
> >> oceans are slowly turning acid, threatening all marine life.
> >>
> >> Professor Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey,
> > presented
> >> new evidence that the West Antarctic ice sheet is beginning to melt,
> >> threatening eventually to raise sea levels by 15ft: 90 per cent of the
> > world's
> >> people live near current sea levels. Recalling that the IPCC's last
> >> report
> > had
> >> called Antarctica "a slumbering giant", he said: "I would say that this
> >> is
> > now
> >> an awakened giant."
> >>
> >> Professor Mike Schlesinger, of the University of Illinois, reported
that
> > the
> >> shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen as a "low probability event",
was
> > now
> >> 45 per cent likely this century, and 70 per cent probable by 2200. If
it
> > comes
> >> sooner rather than later it will be catastrophic for Britain and
northern
> >> Europe, giving us a climate like Labrador (which shares our latitude)
> >> even
> > as
> >> the rest of the world heats up: if it comes later it could be
beneficial,
> >> moderating the worst of the warming.
> >>
> >> The experts at Exeter were virtually unanimous about the danger,
> >> mirroring
> > the
> >> attitude of the climate science community as a whole: humanity is to
> > blame.
> >> There were a few skeptics at Exeter, including Andrei Illarionov, an
> > adviser
> >> to Russia's President Putin, who last year called the Kyoto Protocol
"an
> >> interstate Auschwitz". But in truth it is much easier to find skeptics
> > among
> >> media pundits in London or neo-cons in Washington than among climate
> >> scientists. Even the few contrarian climatalogists publish little
> >> research
> > to
> >> support their views, concentrating on questioning the work of others.
> >>
> >> Now a new scientific consensus is emerging - that the warming must be
> >> kept
> >> below an average increase of two degrees centigrade if catastrophe is
to
> > be
> >> avoided. This almost certainly involves keeping concentrations of
carbon
> >> dioxide, the main cause of climate change, below 400 parts per million.
> >>
> >> Unfortunately we are almost there, with concentrations exceeding 370ppm
> > and
> >> rising, but experts at the conference concluded that we could go
briefly
> > above
> >> the danger level so long as we brought it down rapidly afterwards. They
> > added
> >> that this would involve the world reducing emissions by 50 per cent by
> > 2050 -
> >> and rich countries cutting theirs by 30 per cent by 2020.
> >>
> >> Economists stressed there is little time for delay. If action is put
off
> > for a
> >> decade, it will need to be twice as radical; if it has to wait 20
years,
> > it
> >> will cost between three and seven times as much.
> >>
> >> The good news is that it can be done with existing technology, by
cutting
> >> energy waste, expanding the use of renewable sources, growing trees and
> > crops
> >> (which remove carbon dioxide from the air) to turn into fuel, capturing
> > the
> >> gas before it is released from power stations, and - maybe - using more
> >> nuclear energy.
> >>
> >> The better news is that it would not cost much: one estimate suggested
> >> the
> >> cost would be about 1 per cent of Europe's GNP spread over 20 years;
> > another
> >> suggested it meant postponing an expected fivefold increase in world
> > wealth by
> >> just two years. Many experts believe combating global warming would
> > increase
> >> prosperity, by bringing in new technologies.
> >>
> >> The big question is whether governments will act. President Bush's
> > opposition
> >> to international action remains the greatest obstacle. Tony Blair, by
> > almost
> >> universal agreement, remains the leader with the best chance of
> >> persuading
> > him
> >> to change his mind.
> >>
> >> But so far the Prime Minister has been more influenced by the President
> > than
> >> the other way round. He appears to be moving away from fighting for the
> >> pollution reductions needed in favor of agreeing on a vague pledge to
> > bring in
> >> new technologies sometime in the future.
> >>
> >> By then it will be too late. And our children and grandchildren will
> > wonder -
> >> as we do in surveying, for example, the drift into the First World
War -
> > "how
> >> on earth could they be so blind?"
> >>
> >> WATER WARS
> >>
> >> What could happen? Wars break out over diminishing water resources as
> >> populations grow and rains fail.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? Over 25 per cent more people than at present
> > are
> >> expected to live in countries where water is scarce in the future, and
> > global
> >> warming will make it worse.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali has long said
> >> that
> > the
> >> next Middle East war will be fought for water, not oil.
> >>
> >> DISAPPEARING NATIONS
> >>
> >> What could happen? Low-lying island such as the Maldives and Tuvalu -
> >> with
> >> highest points only a few feet above sea-level - will disappear off the
> > face
> >> of the Earth.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? As the world heats up, sea levels are
rising,
> >> partly because glaciers are melting, and partly because the water in
the
> >> oceans expands as it gets warmer.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Inevitable. Even if global warming stopped today, the
> > seas
> >> would continue to rise for centuries. Some small islands have already
> >> sunk
> > for
> >> ever. A year ago, Tuvalu was briefly submerged.
> >>
> >> FLOODING
> >>
> >> What could happen? London, New York, Tokyo, Bombay, many other cities
and
> > vast
> >> areas of countries from Britain to Bangladesh disappear under tens of
> >> feet
> > of
> >> water, as the seas rise dramatically.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica melt.
The
> >> Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by more than 20ft, the West
> >> Antarctic ice sheet by another 15ft.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Scientists used to think it unlikely, but this year
> > reported
> >> that the melting of both ice caps had begun. It will take hundreds of
> > years,
> >> however, for the seas to rise that much.
> >>
> >> UNINHABITABLE EARTH
> >>
> >> What could happen? Global warming escalates to the point where the
> >> world's
> >> whole climate abruptly switches, turning it permanently into a much
> >> hotter
> > and
> >> less hospitable planet.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? A process involving "positive feedback"
causes
> > the
> >> warming to fuel itself, until it reaches a point that finally tips the
> > climate
> >> pattern over.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Abrupt flips have happened in the prehistoric past.
> >> Scientists believe this is unlikely, at least in the foreseeable
future,
> > but
> >> increasingly they are refusing to rule it out.
> >>
> >> RAINFOREST FIRES
> >>
> >> What could happen? Famously wet tropical forests, such as those in the
> > Amazon,
> >> go up in flames, destroying the world's richest wildlife habitats and
> >> releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide to speed global warming.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? Britain's Met Office predicted in 1999 that
> > much of
> >> the Amazon will dry out and die within 50 years, making it ready for
> > sparks -
> >> from humans or lightning - to set it ablaze.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Very, if the predictions turn out to be right.
Already
> > there
> >> have been massive forest fires in Borneo and Amazonia, casting palls of
> >> hi
> > ghly
> >> polluting smoke over vast areas.
> >>
> >> THE BIG FREEZE
> >>
> >> What could happen? Britain and northern Europe get much colder because
> >> the
> >> Gulf Stream, which provides as much heat as the sun in winter, fails.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? Melting polar ice sends fresh water into the
> > North
> >> Atlantic. The less salty water fails to generate the underwater current
> > which
> >> the Gulf Stream needs.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? About evens for a Gulf Steam failure this century,
said
> >> scientists last week.
> >>
> >> STARVATION
> >>
> >> What could happen? Food production collapses in Africa, for example, as
> >> rainfall dries up and droughts increase. As farmland turns to desert,
> > people
> >> flee in their millions in search of food.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? Rainfall is expected to decrease by up to 60
> > per
> >> cent in winter and 30 per cent in summer in southern Africa this
century.
> > By
> >> some estimates, Zambia could lose almost all its farms.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Pretty likely unless the world tackles both global
> > warming
> >> and Africa's decline. Scientists agree that droughts will increase in a
> > warmer
> >> world.
> >>
> >> ACID OCEANS
> >>
> >> What could happen? The seas will gradually turn more and more acid.
Coral
> >> reefs, shellfish and plankton, on which all life depends, will die off.
> > Much
> >> of the life of the oceans will become extinct.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? The oceans have absorbed half the carbon
> > dioxide,
> >> the main cause of global warming, so far emitted by humanity. This
forms
> >> dilute carbonic acid, which attacks corals and shells.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? It is already starting. Scientists warn that the
> > chemistry
> >> of the oceans is changing in ways unprecedented for 20 million years.
> >> Some
> >> predict that the world's coral reefs will die within 35 years.
> >>
> >> DISEASE
> >>
> >> What could happen? Malaria - which kills two million people worldwide
> > every
> >> year - reaches Britain with foreign travelers, gets picked up by
British
> >> mosquitos and becomes endemic in the warmer climate.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? Four of our 40 mosquito species can carry
the
> >> disease, and hundreds of travelers return with it annually. The insects
> > breed
> >> faster, and feed more, in warmer temperatures.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? A Department of Health study has suggested it may
> >> happen
> > by
> >> 2050: the Environment Agency has mentioned 2020. Some experts say it is
> >> miraculous that it has not happened already.
> >>
> >> HURRICANES
> >>
> >> What could happen? Hurricanes, typhoons and violent storms proliferate,
> > grow
> >> even fiercer, and hit new areas. Last September's repeated battering of
> >> Florida and the Caribbean may be just a foretaste of what is to come,
say
> >> scientists.
> >>
> >> How would this come about? The storms gather their energy from warm
seas,
> > and
> >> so, as oceans heat up, fiercer ones occur and threaten areas where at
> > present
> >> the seas are too cool for such weather.
> >>
> >> How likely is it? Scientists are divided over whether storms will get
> >> more
> >> frequent and whether the process has already begun.
> >>
> >> © 2005 Independent News & Media (UK) Ltd.
> >>
> >> ----------
> >>
> >> Also in Environment by the lndependent/UK
> >> Greenhouse gas 'threatens marine life'
> >> The ultimate high-pressure job: surviving on the seabed
> >> Global warming: scientists reveal timetable
> >> Dramatic change in West Antarctic ice could produce
> >>
> >> For original posting with above links, see:
> >> http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=608209
> >>
> >>
>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
> > ----
> >>
> >> For more Flyby News resources, see:
> >> The Mounting Evidence of Global Warming!!!.
> >>
> >
http://www.flybynews.com/cgi-local/newspro/viewnews.cgi?newsid1014396414,102
> > 78
> >> ,
> >>
> >> For information on a technology to reduce CO2 pollution emissions, see:
> >> STIRLING Solution for Onsite Power Production
> >>
> >
http://www.flybynews.com/cgi-local/newspro/viewnews.cgi?newsid1019075905,598
> > 98
> >> ,m
> >>
>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> > ----
> >>
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> >> info@flybynews.com
> >>
>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> > ----
> >> --
> >>
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> >> environment, human rights, justice, peace, and nonviolence,
> >> since the launching of NASA's Cassini space probe in 1997.
> >>
> >>
> >> >-----------------------Flyby News--------------------====>
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>
>